The Rise of China and Changing Geopolitical Dynamics
- The US is striving to maintain unipolar dominance, while China challenges this by building military and economic partnerships.
- Russia’s actions in Ukraine, backed by China and Iran, threaten US influence in Eastern Europe, destabilizing the unipolar order.
- The South China Sea and Middle East are critical flashpoints, with escalating tensions between American allies and Chinese ambitions.
The US and China are at the daggers drawn, with one pursuing to sustain the unipolar status of the world and the other shifting it towards a multipolar status. However, the measures taken by both countries to accomplish their goal can disrupt the peace of the world.
The USA is marching towards the goal of using their proxies and allies to strengthen their control in the Middle East, South Asia, and Eastern Europe, while China is countering these strategies through military and economic aid to the states against the hegemony of the USA and creating strategic partnerships with them. Since the formation of NATO and the EU, the USA has enjoyed influence over the European countries by providing them with security from the threats of the Soviet Union until its disintegration. Even after the end of the Cold War and the rapid development in European states and better defense than ever, they still rely on the US for safety from external influences, providing the USA the upper hand in the world to rule.
However, the emergence of China as a strong military and economic power over the last decades has posed a potential threat to the US hegemony. The increased influence of China over the South Asian countries and the Mideast countries through development and economic aid with Russia as a strategic partner is a menace for the USA. Globalization and the interconnectedness of the world through which America ruled are no longer enough to hold the reins.
In Eastern Europe, Putin is brewing the idea of the Great Russia by advocating Ukraine and Russia as one. Ukraine was under the rule of the Soviet Union for centuries, and one in every three citizens in Eastern Ukraine speaks Russian. America wants to stop this colonial expansionism by issuing membership in NATO to Ukraine and deploying NATO military assistance on the borders of Ukraine. China and Iran have been accused of providing weapons and artillery to Russia in its war against the Ukraine by the Americans.
The dominance of Russia in its war against Ukraine will decrease the influence of the Americans in Eastern Europe, which will be a huge blow to their unipolar status in the world. America, with its nuclear power allies the UK, Germany, and France, is taking every measure from military to economic aid and using sanctions on Russia to help Ukraine dominate. Will that be enough to stop Russia, backed by China, Iran, and North Korea, from pursuing their goal? The answer seems to be negative.
In the Middle East, Israel is constantly escalating the situation by threatening the sovereignty of the Middle Eastern countries through cross-border attacks acting as a proxy of America. The situation escalated after the killing of the Hezbollah senior leader and the assassination of the Hamas chieftain in the Iranian capital. The reaction of Iran is yet to come other than verbal commitments but there will be consequences for sure. Recently, Erdogan has renewed its call to Muslim countries to show upfront solidarity to stop Israel’s war crimes in Gaza and beyond. Turkey wants to create an alliance of Islamic countries by improving ties with Egypt and others to deal with Israeli terrorist acts and threats of expansionism. The situation will intensify in the coming weeks with risk of another devastating cold war.
In South Asia, things are complex and crucial for both the USA and China. China launched the Belt Road Initiative to revive the Silk Road, a billion-dollar project, which can save them the time and money to trade with the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, and Europe. China has provided economic aid and helped in infrastructure development to different South Asian countries with billion-dollar investments for the BRI project. Its flagship project, CPEC, in Pakistan, is currently facing hurdles due to the influence of America and its monopoly.
One of the factors is the debt trap of the IMF and the need for more debt to run the unstable economy. To make the BRI project a success, Pakistan’s escape from the debt trap and influence of America is mandatory. The status of the other Asian giant, India, is crucial in this region. India has been a friend of America and an enemy of China, helping US dominance in this region through a divide-and-rule strategy. The recent developments through the BRICS summits and India’s duality in dealing with the Russia-Ukraine war are of concern for the West. The strategy of de-dollarization and the development of a common currency by the BRICS will destroy the American hegemony. Will the BRICS be able to end Western supremacy? It depends on the economic relationship between the members of the BRICS if they can cooperate and develop sustainable economic ties.
In the South China Sea, the situation is also critical and can lead to a war. China wants to control the nine-dash lines of the South China Sea and secure its blue economy, which can be under threat due to the American allies across these waters, especially at the Strait of Malacca. The Malacca Strait narrows down the path to just 3 km and can restrict the pathway of China’s shipments because of the Vietnam, the Philippines, and other American ally’s military exercises. If China succeeds in controlling these waters, this can become a threat to the blue economy of other states.
The fact is the South China Sea is important for all the global players and a threat, as 3 trillion dollars of trade is made through this route. America declares these militarization states of China illegal as all the global players, including China, have signed the lathe militarization of sea, which means everybody gets the same set of maritime claims. Will the law of the sea and militarisation of American allies be enough to stop China from claiming these waters? We will have to wait and watch.
This war between two countries is also a conflict between two political ideologies, Communism and Democracy. America is losing its claim of democratic leadership due to the economic and military support provided to Israel for the genocide and colonization of Gaza, while China extending economic aid to third-world countries and developing friendly relations and partnerships, may feel more secure to the states of the world, which will also contribute to decline of western rule
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